244

16

Environment and Ecology

ceased in the early 1980s), we have the production of enormous tonnages of cotton

and wheat; that was, essentially, the trade-off. ¹⁸

It may be that modelling—albeit more sophisticated than the Lotka–Volterra equa-

tions or the Forrester–Meadows approach—informed by time series of salient data

can at least present the alternatives of possible actions and prevent the inadvertent

falling into disaster. Proper account of the evolving nature of the system being mod-

elled needs to be taken. ¹⁹ That is, perhaps, the best that can be achieved; most or all

ecosystems are likely examples of a Class IV cellular automaton (capable of univer-

sal computation), the evolution of which can only be explored by explicit simulation

and shortcuts to the future are in principle impossible.

References

Aardema MJ, MacGregor JT (2002) Toxicology and genetic toxicology in the new era of “toxi-

cogenomics”: impact of “-omics” technologies. Mutation Res 499:13–25

Allen PM (1998) Evolving complexity in social science. In: Altman G, Koch WA (eds) Systems—

new paradigms for the human sciences. Walter de Gruyter, Berlin

Allen PM, Strathern M (2008) Complexity, stability and crises. In: Ramsden JJ, Kervalishvili PJ

(eds) Complexity and security. IOS Press, Amsterdam (2008), pp 71–92

Aref A, Horvath R, Ramsden JJ (2010) Spreading kinetics as a means of quantifying cell state

during stem cell differentiation. J Biol Phys Chem 10:53–54

Boettiger C, Ross N, Hastings A (2013) Early warning signals: the charted and uncharted territories.

Theor Ecol 6:255–264

von Foerster H (1972) Perception of the future and the future of perception. Instructional Sci.

1:31–43

Gaucher EA, Thomson JM, Burgan MF, Benner SA (2003) Inferring the Palaeo environment of

ancient bacteria on the basis of resurrected proteins. Nature 425:285–288

Go Y-M, Jones DP (2017) Redox theory of aging: implications for health and disease. Clin Sci

131:1669–1688

Goel NS, Maitra SC, Montroll EW (1971) On the Volterra and other nonlinear models of interacting

populations. Rev Mod Phys 43:231–276

Hastings A, Wysham DB (2010) Regime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning.

Ecol Lett 13:464–472

Jirtle RL, Skinner MK (2007) Environmental epigenomics and disease susceptibility. Nature Rev

Genet 8:253–262

Kunitz SJ (2002) Holism and the idea of general susceptibility to disease. Intl J Epidemiol 31:722–

729

Marchant GE (2002) Toxic genomics and toxic torts. Trends Biotechnol 20:329–332

18 Although one might accept the trade-off, one might criticize its implementation: much of the

water taken for irrigation is lost through seepage (e.g., because of unlined canals). Excessive use

of fertilizers and pesticides has led to pollution of potable water, and the now dry, salty bed of

the sea is a source of aerial dust (tilde 60∼60 Mt/year) transported away by the wind, and the cause of

widespread respiratory problems. These deleterious consequences of the transfer of water from sea

to fields might have been foreseen and mitigated accordingly. A project to divert water from the

great Siberian rivers to the Aral Sea was under investigation but was abandoned with the end of the

Soviet Union—another kind of collapse.

19 Allen (1998), Allen and Strathern (2008).